Betfair Trading on TV Specials: How to Bet on TV Shows like Big Brother

Reality TV shows such as Big Brother and Dancing on Ice are watched by millions of people in the UK and worldwide. The popularity of these tv programmes has spurned Betfair into placing them in their "Specials" market. The Specials Market is where you can bet on events that are usually not sports related but provide a lucrative place where a profit can be made.

The Specials markets can be found near the bottom of the Betfair sports betting page. From the screenshot provided (left) , we can see that we are able to bet on the winner of tv shows such as "Celebrity Big Brother", "Dancing on Ice", "Strictly Come Dancing" and "X Factor". The great thing about betting on tv shows is that it is fairly predicable and there is no need to spend hours learning the rules of a sport.

Trading on TV Specials is the same as trading on any other market using a long term strategy such as Bet-Sleep-Bet. Just apply the same trading principles to this market. The tv show that you decide to choose is irrelevant, the same strategy can be used on celebrity big brother, dancing on ice or any other programme that follows the same format (i.e. people get voted off each week and there is an eventual winner).

For this tutorial, I chose Celebrity Big Brother. As you'll probably already know, Celebrity Big Brother is a popular show in the UK where celebrity contestants are put into a house and then voted off each week until a winner is crowned. During their stay in the Big Brother House, they do tasks in order to get necessary and luxury items. Before I get into my method, here are some important things to know about this market:

Q1. What causes price fluctuations in these markets?

Odds in tv shows will fluctuate depending on how the audience perceive the contestant. For example, in Big Brother, if they are nominated for eviction their odds will rise as it is more likely for them to be voted off. Similarly, in Dancing on Ice or Strictly Come Dancing, odds may rise or fall due to the judges' reactions to their performance. There are many other instances where odds will fluctuate and they are all extremely predictable.

Q2. Is there enough liquidity?

Big brother is watched by millions of people and usually has more than £2 million matched before the end of the show. There is plenty of money for you to match which means ample opportunities for you to trade out whenever you want to reduce risk. On the flip side, this also means there is a lot of money for you to make a profit on as well.

Q3. How do you make money?

The objective is simple. Trade on price fluctuations and aim to get a free bet scenario or equalise a profit. For more experienced traders, use your judgement to create weighted profit on favourites.

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